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  1. #1
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    Forex News - TenkoFX.com

    NZD/JPY is hesitating amid a bull run, backing into 78.00 on low volumes

    The NZD/JPY has backed off an Asia session high of 78.30 and is back down near 78.10 as the Kiwi cools off and markets attempt a swing back to normalcy following Tuesday's Trump-fueled risk aversion.The broader markets took a header on Tuesday as risk aversion spiked once more, this time on the heels of Trump firing his own hand-selected Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson. Trump's plans to seek new tariffs against China also leaked, and Trump will be looking for $60B worth of tariffs on Chinese-made goods including electronics, telecommunications, toys, and furniture.Late Wednesday will be seeing New Zealand's GDP figures at 21:45 GMT; the annual rate is expected to come in at 3.1% versus the previous 2.7%, and a sign of growth will be a welcome boon to Kiwi bulls as New Zealand's economy has lagged behind global growth trends lately. At 23:50 GMT will be Japan's Foreign Investment in Stocks and Bonds, and the previous figures showed a deep contraction as foreign investment has fled the country seeking higher interest rates that are likely to come from other central banks soon, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is stoically committed to their easy monetary policy until inflation reaches their lofty 2% target.

    Risk appetite has been souring in Asia this week following revelations that Japan's Finance Minister, Taro Aso, is involved in a political scandal that sees Japan's finance ministry forging documents involved in a steeply-discounted sale of government land to a school operator with ties to Shinzo Abe's wife. Abe is the Premier of Japan, and the formal opposition party is outraged, calling for Aso to step down from his position and accept responsibility for the scandal.

    The impact of the discovery is beginning to wane in markets as Trump resumes filling headlines with his antics and the revolving-door on his administration.NZD/JPY TechnicalsThe pair is leaning to the bullish side, but plenty of resistance remains as Daily candles begin to run into resistance from the 34 EMA. On H4 charts the pair has plenty of bullish potential built-in, though a continued correction from this level could see support from the last swing low at 77.60 and the 50.0 Fibo level at 77.25, while resistance builds at the 34-day EMA currently near 78.30, and the last swing high of 78.62.
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  3. #2
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    Bank of England: To remain on hold after May rate hike - Wells Fargo Matías Salord

    The Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England has sounded more hawkish in the past month or so according to analysts at Wells Fargo. They look for the central bank to hike rates by 25 bps at its next policy meeting on May 10.Key Quotes: “CPI inflation in the United Kingdom fell from 3.0 percent in January to 2.7 percent in February, which could compel the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to remain on hold for the foreseeable future. But the labor market and the broader economy appear to be performing well, and the MPC has sounded more hawkish in the past month or so.

    We look for it to hike rates 25 bps at its next policy meeting on May 10.”“The strong payrolls number helped to push the unemployment rate down to 4.3 percent, the lowest rate in 42 years.”“It appears that the economy continues to expand at a reasonable rate in the first quarter.”“The MPC surprised market participants at its last policy meeting in early February when it said that “the UK economy has only a very limited degree of slack,” and that “monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period” than previously anticipated. In its March policy statement the MPC reiterated its view that spare capacity will be used up by the end of next year. Although the MPC voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold this week, the two dissenting members of the committee presumably voted to hike rates.”“A few weeks ago we brought forward our expectation of another MPC rate hike, which we had originally penciled in for the August policy meeting, to May due to the more hawkish MPC rhetoric and the incoming data flow.

    We currently expect that the MPC will then remain on hold until early 2019, but we acknowledge that there is a reasonable probability that it could hike rates yet again later this year. As the MPC itself noted, a major uncertainty facing the U.K. economy remains the Brexit negotiations. If this uncertainty should start to weigh on growth later this year, then the MPC likely will remain on hold after its expected rate hike in May.”
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    AUD/USD plummets to lows, risks breaking below 0.7700 mark

    A strong pickup in the USD demand prompts some aggressive selling.

    Subdued US bond yields/positive commodities did little to lend support.
    • US consumer confidence data eyed for some fresh trading impetus.

    The AUD/USD pair extended its sharp retracement slide from multi-day tops and has now dropped to the 0.7700 handle, reversing a major part of previous session's strong up-move. A strong US Dollar rebound, led by receding fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies, prompted some aggressive selling and was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair's heavily offered tone on Tuesday.

    Meanwhile, traders seemed to have largely shrugged off a subdued action around the US Treasury bond yields/positive commodity prices, which tends to underpin demand for higher-yielding/commodity-linked currencies - like the Aussie, with the USD price dynamics acting as an exclusive driver of the pair's fall to fresh session lows.Traders now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of CB Consumer Confidence Index in order to grab some short-term opportunities ahead of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's scheduled speech.

    Technical levels to watch:
    A follow-through selling pressure has the potential to continue dragging the pair further towards 0.7670 intermediate support en-route 0.7640-35 area and the 0.7600 handle. On the upside, any recovery attempts might continue to confront fresh supply near mid-0.7700s, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering bounce towards an important moving averages confluence resistance near the 0.7800 handle.
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    The now softer tone around the Sterling and the single currency has pushed EUR/GBP to daily tops in the 0.8800 neighbourhood, where it now seems to have found tough resistance.

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    traders seemed to have largely shrugged off a subdued action around the US Treasury bond yields/positive commodity prices, which tends to underpin demand for higher-yielding/commodity-linked currencies - like the Aussie.

  7. #6
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    NZD/USD finds support at 0.7200, still under pressure

    The NZD/USD pair erased losses but still remains under some pressure. The kiwi dropped during the Asian session to 0.7186, reaching the lowest level in a week. Then rebounded and managed to rise back above 0.7200 but the up move seems limited for the moment.

    Recently the pair reached a fresh daily high at 0.7218, boosted by a weaker US dollar versus commodity currencies. The greenback is up against European currencies but down compared to most of its rivals. Risk appetite weakened the demand for the US dollar and also lower US bond yields. Despite the recovery, the kiwi remains among the worst performer of commodity and emerging market currencies today. The rebound of AUD/NZD could be affecting the kiwi. The greenback was practically unaffected by US economic data.

    The Core PCE price index came in line with expectations: up 0.4% in February (1.6% y/y). Also, personal income (+0.4%) and personal spending (+0.2%) showed numbers matching market consensus. NZD/USD Technical levels To the upside, resistances could be seen at 0.7230, 0.7255/60 and 0.7290 (downtrend line). On the flip side, support might lie at 0.7185 (daily low), 0.7150/55 (March low) and 0.7125.
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    RBA: Small shorts squeezed in rates market

    Australian 3yr bond futures prices were trading at the lows of the day ahead of the RBA Governor’s statement but moved 2 ticks higher on the release, notes Damien McColough, Research Analyst at Westpac.Key Quotes“With a hike having been a 0% chance that suggests that the market was looking for a more hawkish outlook, perhaps around the forward growth profile, but that was not forthcoming and small shorts were squeezed.

    Indeed, the commentary around the growth profile is indicative a reduced RBA forecast in the may SoMP and that will only reinforce the concept of the RBA on hold for an extended period and also consolidate the broader 3yr trading range, which we see as being contained within the 97.70 – 98.05 range for now.”“With 3m BBSW having set another 0.05bp higher today, despite the March quarter-end being behind us, there was also keen interest in in what the RBA had to say about financial conditions.

    As it was, they acknowledged that there has “..been some tightening of conditions in US dollar short-term money markets, [and] … this has flowed through to higher short-term interest rates in a few other countries, including Australia.”“At the same time they still caution that financial conditions remain expansionary.

    So the RBA is clearly not particularly concerned about the prospects of banks passing on any increased funding costs via independent rate hikes and would appear to be adopting a “wait and see” approach to what happens in these short-term funding markets.”“There was nothing else in the statement to alter our expectations for the curve and cross market spreads. The former is long-end directional and the latter will continue to consolidate recent outperformance before resuming that path later in the year.”
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  9. #8
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    USD/JPY meets fresh supply, breaches 107.00 ahead of US CPI Dhwani Mehta


    The USD/JPY pair came under renewed selling pressure in the European session, as the Yen got bumped up into the negative sentiment around the European equities.The Chinese President Xi’s pro-globalization stance led risk-on sentiment faded on rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria while attention shifts towards the US inflation figures, with a soft print likely to weigh negatively on the US interest rates outlook. Aside from risk-off flows, the Yen also finds some support from an upside surprise seen in the Japanese core machinery orders data released earlier today.

    Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) came in at 2.1%, above expectations (-2.5%) in February“Today’s economic calendar contains US inflation data and FOMC Minutes. Headline inflation is expected to print at 0% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y while core inflation is forecast to accelerate to 0.2% M/M and 2.1% Y/Y. Yesterday’s higher US PPI readings left markets unnerved, but we don’t think that such pattern will last for long.

    Higher US inflation readings will eventually boost chances of an additional Fed rate hike this year. FOMC Minutes could be more hawkish than recent speeches by Fed governors as they probably won’t attach much weight to the 4x trade dispute,” KBC Market Research Desk notes.

    USD/JPY levels to watch:

    According to Omkar Godbole, Analysts at FXStreet, “the 5, 10 and 21 MA is biased bullish. The MACD has turned positive and the RSI is holding above 50.00 (into bullish territory). So, the spot could attack rising wedge hurdle seen at 107.91 (Feb 21 high + rising wedge hurdle).

    The pair could rise to 109.33 (descending 21-week MA) if the spot closes above 107.9 in a convincing manner. Meanwhile, a downside break of the rising wedge would signal the corrective rally has ended. In such a scenario, the pair will likely target the recent low of 104.63.”
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  10. #9
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    EUR/USD within a tight range around 1.2200, US data

    EUR/USD is alternating gains with losses on Tuesday, keeping the range between fresh lows near 1.2180 and session tops near 1.2220.EUR/USD fragile, looks to data

    The pair’s price action remains exclusively dependent on USD-dynamics, where the demand for the buck picked up considerable pace as of late and pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fresh 3-month peaks in the 91.00 neighbourhood.Adding to the persistent weakness around spot, yields of the key US 10-year benchmark are once again flirting with the psychological 3.0% level, or multi-year tops, as investors have shifted their attention to monetary policy.

    In the data space, disappointing IFO figures in Germany capped occasional upside and kept the sentiment depressed around EUR.

    In the US docket, house prices tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller Index rose at a non-seasonally-adjusted 6.8% YoY in February.

    Next on tap will be the CB’s Consumer Sentiment for the month of April and New Home Sales.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is up 0.07% at 1.2218 and a break above 1.2314 (21-day sma) would target 1.2321 (10-day sma) en route to 1.2414 (high Apr.17).

    On the other hand, immediate contention emerges at 1.2184 (low Apr.24) seconded by 1.2165 (low Jan.18) and finally 1.2153 (low Mar.1).
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  11. #10
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    USD/JPY stays firm near 109.00 ahead of US data

    The Japanese safe haven continues to depreciate vs. its American counterpart on Tuesday and is lifting USD/JPY to fresh tops closer to the key 109.00 the figure.

    USD/JPY in 2-month tops:

    Spot is advancing for the fifth consecutive session so far today, trading in the area of multi-week tops and approaching the 109.00 region, levels last seen in late February.

    Higher US yields and investors refocusing on monetary policy have been fueling the recent upside in the pair, bolstered at the same time by Japanese importers’ appetite and recurrent comments by BoJ officials defending the need for a continuation (for now) of the mega-loose monetary stance.

    In the data space, US Consumer Confidence measured by the Conference Board, New Home Sales and the S&P/Case-Shiller Index are all due next.

    USD/JPY levels to consider:

    As of writing the pair is up 0.10% at 1008.82 and a break above 108.91 (high Apr.24) would aim for 109.01 (100-day sma) and then 110.48 (high Feb.2).

    On the downside, the immediate support lines up at 107.54 (10-day sma) followed by 107.04 (21-day sma) and finally 106.86 (low Apr.17).
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    Wall Street stocks mixed see some profit-taking

    The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 2,669.91 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 11.15 points and closed at 24,311.19. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed unchanged at 7,119.80 as Apple, Alphabet and Netflix dropped.

    This is a pullback day in stocks after the strong advance seen on Thursday. The US 10-year Treasury yields declined for the second day in a row on Friday further helping stocks stabilize. Higher yields are seen as bearish for stocks as it gets investors out of risk assets into cash. On the geopolitical front, South and North Korea’s leaders met in a historical face to face discussion for the first time in 60 years. They discussed plans to completely denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

    This bodes pretty well for world stocks as it slightly decreases the risks of war. Although some analysts argue that the meeting doesn’t actually change the broader picture.

    "It does nothing to change the long-term calculations of the North Korean leader about his need for a credible nuclear threat to ultimately protect his regime," argues Meredith Sumpter from Eurasia Group.Also worth noting is Angela Merkel’s trip to Washington.

    She will address the issues on the Iran nuclear deal, the project of US tariffs on European metals products and Berlin's military spending. "Macron has a good personal relationship with Trump and Merkel has a bad relationship with him, but it's not necessarily a problem. In fact, I don't actually think she cares that much about it.

    This trip is about damage limitation. We are almost in crisis mode with tariffs being threatened, so her focus has to be on that," Charles Lichfield from Eurasia Group.Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil reported $1.09 earning per share versus $1.12 expected for the first quarter of 2018. However, its revenue increased 16% to $4.65 billion from a year ago.

    Check the S&P500 daily chart
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  13. #12
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    EUR/USD putting 1.2100 to the test, German CPI eyed

    The selling pressure seems to have resumed around the European currency at the beginning of the week and is now dragging EUR/USD to trade in the area of daily lows in the 1.2100 neighbourhood.

    EUR/USD attention to German, US dataAfter a brief test of session highs near 1.2140 during early trade, the pair met some sellers and is now challenging the key support at the 1.2100 region, which could derive in a potential test of Friday’s lows in the mid-1.2000s if breached.

    Spot returned to the negative territory in response to the continuation of the upside bias around the buck, which is lifting the US Dollar Index to fresh peaks in the 91.70 region despite yields of the key US 10-year yield remain in a consolidative mode around 2.96%.

    Later in the day, German advanced inflation figures for the month of April area due, while PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales are all due later in the US docket.

    EUR/USD levels to watch: At the moment, the pair is losing 0.22% at 1.2104 and a breakdown of 1.2050 (low Apr.27) would target 1.2013 (200-day sma) and then 1.1916 (2018 low Jan.19).

    On the other hand, the next resistance emerges at 1.2210 (high Apr.26) seconded by 1.2235 (10-day sma) en route to 1.2276 (21-day sma).
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  14. #13
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    EUR/USD still faces downside risks

    In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair still faces some downside risks.Key Quotes“EUR/USD’s sell-off has reached and exceeded the 23.6% retracement at 1.2019 and the 200 day ma at 1.2014.

    While it is possible that this will provoke some consolidation, the downside risks remain. Longer term we will allow for losses back to the 55 week ma at 1.1812. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and this is suggesting that we allow for a bounce to 1.2080/1.2140”.

    “We will maintain an immediate bearish bias below the 1.2155 February low”.“Our overall bearish bias is maintained while capped by the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2622”.
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  15. #14
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    EUR/USD: Recovery mode intact near 1.1935 post

    The EUR/USD pair makes a tepid recovery attempt from 1.1922 lows, as markets appear to have ignored the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence numbers, which showed a dip in the investors’ confidence to 19.2 for May versus 21.0 expected.

    However, the recovery appears limited amid persisting US dollar strength across the board, as the USD bulls continue to cheer stronger US fundamentals, with the latest US jobs data having added to the signs of a strengthening US economy while the Fed remains on track to hike the interest rates in June.

    Looking ahead, the spot is likely to maintain its range play on the 1.19 handle should the bulls continue to guard the last. A breach of the multi-month lows of 1.1911 levels could pave the way for further declines towards the December lows of 1.1718, as traders await the US CPI report due later this week.EUR/USD levels to watch.

    According to Slobodan Drvenica at Windsor Brokers, “Negative near-term outlook is expected to persist while 200SMA caps and keep in focus target at 1.1910 (Friday’s spike low / new 2018 low), with stronger bearish acceleration capable of traveling towards 1.1790 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1553/1.2555). An eventual close below 1.1936 is seen as an initial requirement for bearish continuation.Res: 1.1978; 1.2000; 1.2016;
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  16. #15
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    GBP/USD around 1.3540 on UK data, looks to BoE

    The Sterling stays in the negative territory vs. the buck on Thursday and is now taking GBP/USD to the 1.3540 zone following releases in the UK docket.

    GBP/USD steady ahead of BoE;

    Cable remained apathetic in the wake of UK publications today, where Manufacturing Production contracted less than expected 0.1% MoM in March and 2.9% over the last twelve months.

    Further data saw Industrial Production expanding 0.1% inter-month and 2.9% on a yearly basis.

    In addition, Construction Output contracted 2.3% MoM and 4.9% on an annualized basis.In the meantime, the pair is extending the consolidative theme in play since the beginning of May above 1.3500 the figure and ahead of the critical BoE interest rate decision and Inflation Report due later in the European afternoon.

    GBP/USD levels to consider:


    As of writing, the pair is losing 0.09% at 1.3536 facing the next support at 1.3487 (low May 4) seconded by 1.3457 (2018 low Jan.11) and finally 1.3400 (psychological level). On the upside, a break above 1.3604 (10-day sma) would aim for 1.3658 (2017 high Sep.20) and then 1.3712 (low Mar.1).
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  17. #16
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    EUR/USD clinches fresh tops beyond 1.1960

    The demand for the European currency stays solid at the end of the week, pushing EUR/USD further into the positive territory around 1.1960/65 band.

    EUR/USD pushes higher on USD-sellingThe pair is posting its second consecutive daily advance today and is flirting with a positive weekly close for the first time after three consecutive weeks with losses.The renewed and moderate sell off in the greenback during the second half of the week comes after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, as announced by President Trump late on Tuesday.

    Furthermore, some logical profit taking in response to recent gains and lower-than-expected US CPI results also added to the offered bias in USD. In the data space, US advanced Consumer Sentiment came in at 98.8 for the current month, a tad above prior surveys. Earlier in the session, Export Price Index expanded 0.6% MoM in April and the Import Price Index rose at a monthly 0.3%.

    EUR/USD levels to watch

    At the moment, the pair is up 0.43% at 1.1965 and a break above 1.2000 (psychological level) would target 1.2019 (200-day sma) en route to 1.2113 (21-day sma). On the flip side, immediate support aligns at 1.1823 (2018 low May 8) seconded by 1.1768 (78.6% Fibo of November-February up move) and finally 1.1718 (monthly low Dec.12 2017).
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  18. #17
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    EUR/USD firmer, approaches fresh tops near 1.2000

    The buying pressure around the shared currency is picking up extra pace at the beginning of the week and is now pushing EUR/USD to the vicinity of the critical 1.2000 milestone.EUR/USD looks to ECB-speakers. The rally in the European currency stays well and sound on Monday, advancing to the boundaries of the critical 1.2000 handle and closer to the key up barrier at 1.2020, home of the 200-day sma.

    The continuation of the softer bias around the greenback has prompted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to retreat to fresh 2-week lows in the 92.40/35 band after clinching 2018 tops in the mid-93.00s last week.

    In the data space, speeches by ECB’s Praet, Lautenschlaeger and Coeure are due throughout the session. On the USD-side, Cleveland Fed L.Mester (voter, hawkish) said on CNBC the Fed could have to raise rates beyond 3%.EUR/USD levels to watch.

    At the moment, the pair is up 0.40% at 1.1989 and a break above 1.2020 (200-day sma) would target 1.2048 (38.2% Fibo of 1.2413-1.1823) en route to 1.2096 (21-day sma).

    On the flip side, immediate support aligns at 1.1935 (10-day sma) seconded by 1.1823 (2018 low May 8) and finally 1.1768 (78.6% Fibo of November-February up move).
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  19. #18
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    GBP/USD depressed near 1.3530 post-UK jobs

    The Sterling is losing further ground on Tuesday, dragging GBP/USD to fresh lows in the vicinity of 1.3520 in the wake of the publication of UK’s jobs.

    GBP/USD weaker on data

    Cable trades on a weaker fashion on Tuesday following a pick up in the demand for the greenback and disappointing figures from today’s UK jobs report.

    In fact, UK’s Claimant Count rose by 31.2K jobs in April while Average Earnings inc. Bonus expanded 2.6% in March, both reading coming in below initial estimates. In addition, the jobless rate stayed put at 4.2% and the Employment Change rose 197.0K MoM. In the meantime, spot keeps the multi-day sideline theme well and sound so far today, with the lower bound around 1.3460 – or YTD lows – and gains so far capped above the 1.3600 mark.

    GBP/USD levels to consider:

    As of writing, the pair is losing 0.07% at 1.3546 facing the immediate support at 1.3458 (2018 low May 4/Jan.11) seconded by 1.3400 (psychological level) and finally 1.3304 (monthly low Dec.12). On the upside, a break above 1.3618 (high May 10) would aim for 1.3658 (2017 high Sep.20) and then 1.3712 (low Mar.1).
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  20. #19
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    EUR/USD hits fresh lows ahead of FOMC minutes Matías Salord

    The euro reached fresh daily lows against the US Dollar ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. EUR/USD dropped to 1.1676, reaching a fresh 6-month low.The pair is down a hundred pips, having the worst performance in months. Fed’s minutes could add more strength to the USD rally or could trigger a corrective rally.

    It depends on the views of FOMC members about the economic outlook. Ahead of the minutes, EUR/USD trades at the lows, after breaking a 2-day trading range. If current levels are confirmed, the outlook would continue to favor more losses.

    While the US Dollar continues to be supported by rising US yields, the Euro remains under pressure on the back of Italian politics and recent Eurozone economic data (PMI and Consumer Confidence) that came in below expectations.Short-term technical levels If the slide continues, immediate support could be seen at 1.1660, followed by 1.1620 and 1.1575. On the upside, resistances might lie at 1.1710, 1.1730/35 (20-hour moving average) and 1.1750.
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    The NZD/JPY has backed off an Asia session high of 78.30 and is back down near 78.10 as the Kiwi cools off and markets attempt a swing back to normalcy following Tuesday's Trump-fueled risk aversion.The broader markets took a header on Tuesday as risk aversion spiked once more, this time on the heels of Trump firing his own hand-selected Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson.

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